Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4E 0x4ee8…862b other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$103 (+10%) realized +$106 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day36.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$98
finance 31% −$26
world 21% −$75
sports 16% +$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.1% -4.9% 33% 33% +2.6%
≤30d 6 +5.1% -4.9% 33% 33% +2.6%
≤90d 6 +5.1% -4.9% 33% 33% +2.6%
all 6 +5.1% -4.9% 33% 33% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 33% +2.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 33% -7.2%
15% -22.3% 33% -16.2%
20% -29.9% 33% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$26 · ×3.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized+$106
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day36.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 25 $324 −$26 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 25 $214 −$75 -35%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $137 +$103 +76%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 −$2 -37%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $70 +$101 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $254 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $29 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 8h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 8h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 9h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 9h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $21 9h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 15h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 17h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 17h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 20h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $37 20h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $82 20h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 22h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $31 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 22h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $40 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $26 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $32 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $56 22h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $16 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.63 · official $276.63 (match) · 45 history records