Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ee6…fe26 crypto 1217 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,578 (-6%) realized −$1,578 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%549W / 663L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$390est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$138
7 days+$16
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$653
other 14% −$450
crypto 10% −$332
world 1% −$18
politics 0% −$17
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +5.2% -4.8% 56% 56% -8.8%
≤30d 126 +45.4% +31.5% 44% 44% -10.6%
≤90d 1212 -3.3% -12.5% 45% 44% -15.9%
all 1212 -3.3% -12.5% 45% 44% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 44% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 42% -23.9%
15% -28.5% 40% -31.3%
20% -35.5% 36% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,578
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses549 / 663
Est. fees paid−$390
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1212 / 1217
History coverage62d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Team Evictix 30¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+233%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$140 +138%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 17 $102 +$39 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $137 −$135 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$50 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$43 +43%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$94 +93%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $228 −$225 -98%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $101 +$60 +60%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $163 −$160 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$7 -6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $102 +$118 +116%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $127 −$125 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $101 +$72 +71%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $51 −$4 -8%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 +$47 +46%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $152 −$1 -1%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $203 +$109 +54%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $101 −$4 -4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $101 −$5 -5%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $101 −$45 -44%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $101 −$3 -4%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $101 −$2 -2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 05 $101 −$100 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 05 $101 +$89 +88%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $102 +$117 +115%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $101 +$64 +63%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $101 +$72 +71%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $101 +$72 +71%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 03 $101 +$32 +32%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $101 −$3 -2%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $102 +$152 +149%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 31 $102 +$147 +144%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $76 −$75 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $102 −$3 -3%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $102 +$58 +57%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $138 −$135 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $128 −$125 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $51 −$2 -3%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $102 +$104 +102%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $101 +$50 +49%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 29 $76 +$65 +85%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) May 29 $203 +$100 +49%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $76 +$82 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $242 27m
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 71¢ $140 1h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Team Evictix 46¢ $152 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 30¢ $51 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 30¢ $51 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Team Evictix 42¢ $40 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 26¢ $26 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Team Evictix 76¢ $154 4h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 49¢ $102 6h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 50¢ $102 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $151 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $144 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 47h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 96¢ $196 2d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $102 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 16¢ $26 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $203 2d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 97¢ $162 2d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 51¢ $95 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $101 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $220 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 23¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.41 · official $0.00 (match) · 2298 history records