Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4E 0x4ee2…46e1 crypto 217 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (300 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$244,436 (+278%) realized +$244,407 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%269W / 205L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day300.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$153,302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$23,701
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (300 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+47.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 357 +60.6% +45.3% 45% 45% -23.6%
≤30d 474 +62.7% +47.2% 57% 57% -12.3%
≤90d 474 +62.7% +47.2% 57% 57% -12.3%
all 474 +62.7% +47.2% 57% 57% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover300.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +47.2% 57% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here +33.1% 45% -20.7%
15% +20.2% 33% -28.4%
20% +8.5% 27% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +111% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
16.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$241 vs −$396 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$153,302
Realized+$244,407
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses269 / 205
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)474 / 217
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$406
Trades / day300.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 474 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? No 53¢ 100¢ $1,503 $2,827 +$1,324 (+88%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? No 75¢ 100¢ $158 $210 +$52 (+33%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? No 86¢ 95¢ $92 $101 +$10 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? No 82¢ 100¢ $82 $100 +$18 (+22%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 17? No 87¢ 90¢ $87 $90 +$3 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? No 88¢ 98¢ $47 $52 +$5 (+12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Yes 67¢ 96¢ $13 $19 +$6 (+44%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? No 58¢ 100¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+73%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 15? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? No 16¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$3 (+525%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? No 38¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? No 49¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 239 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? Jun 15 $5,088 +$1,307 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 24? Jun 15 $4,997 +$1,295 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 28? Jun 15 $4,120 +$847 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 23? Jun 15 $2,690 +$1,189 +44%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 23? Jun 15 $2,444 +$814 +33%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 23? Jun 15 $2,380 +$735 +31%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 23? Jun 15 $1,199 +$1,851 +154%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 24? Jun 15 $1,427 +$1,532 +107%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 15 $1,883 +$770 +41%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 27? Jun 15 $1,023 +$1,605 +157%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2? Jun 15 $636 +$1,348 +212%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 27? Jun 15 $464 +$1,263 +272%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? Jun 15 $489 +$998 +204%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? Jun 15 $1,187 +$231 +20%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 18-24? Jun 15 $880 +$312 +36%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 24? Jun 15 $250 +$676 +270%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? Jun 15 $578 +$200 +35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 June 1-7? Jun 15 $413 +$287 +70%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on May 29? Jun 15 $266 +$434 +163%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 29? Jun 15 $198 +$407 +206%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 23? Jun 15 $458 +$145 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 15 $9 +$591 +6797%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 30? Jun 15 $400 +$100 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? Jun 15 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 27? Jun 15 $332 +$141 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 29? Jun 15 $206 +$194 +94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1? Jun 15 $174 −$174 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 30? Jun 15 $231 +$58 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 15 $86 +$140 +162%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? Jun 15 $144 +$64 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 30? Jun 15 $92 +$108 +117%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 24? Jun 15 $140 +$32 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 4? Jun 15 $128 +$43 +33%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 9? Jun 15 $101 +$29 +29%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? Jun 15 $99 +$25 +25%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on June 1? Jun 15 $50 +$65 +131%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? Jun 15 $27 +$85 +313%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 24? Jun 15 $94 +$13 +13%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 18-24? Jun 15 $61 +$39 +64%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on June 1? Jun 15 $90 +$10 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 15 $77 +$21 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 2? Jun 15 $37 +$55 +147%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24? Jun 15 $63 +$28 +45%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 30? Jun 15 $69 +$11 +16%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 24? Jun 15 $55 +$19 +34%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 28? Jun 15 $56 +$16 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 24? Jun 15 $17 +$50 +286%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 1-7? Jun 15 $55 +$10 +18%
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on May 29? Jun 15 $53 +$6 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 4? Jun 15 $37 +$22 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 71¢ $4 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 78¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 78¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 78¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 77¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 77¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 77¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 77¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 77¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 77¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 77¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 77¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 77¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 77¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 52¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $14 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $14 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $14 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $14 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153,301.63 · official $153,300.60 (match) · 3500 history records