Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ee1…10be other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30 (-15%) realized −$21 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate29%11W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$17
14 days−$16
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$14
politics 22% $0
world 13% −$9
economics 8% −$2
finance 4% −$1
crypto 5% −$9
tech 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
sports 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -54.6% -58.9% 33% 33% -44.3%
≤30d 5 -22.9% -30.3% 60% 40% -25.9%
≤90d 38 -23.1% -30.4% 29% 8% -23.5%
all 38 -23.1% -30.4% 29% 8% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 8% -23.5%
10% -37.1% 8% -30.8%
15% -43.1% 8% -37.5%
20% -48.7% 3% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses11 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage34d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $16 −$9 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +41%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Nope" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Perfect Match: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this wee May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? May 26 $1 −$1 -61%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 May 26 $1 $0 -34%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 26 $2 $0 -4%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1 $0 -14%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? May 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 26 $9 −$1 -6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 26 $13 −$1 -7%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 26 $1 $0 -22%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? May 26 $1 $0 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? May 26 $2 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 26 $2 $0 -0%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 26 $1 $0 +2%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? May 26 $1 $0 -6%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May? May 26 $1 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $1 $0 -24%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? May 26 $10 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $3 $0 +2%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will "Black Phone 2" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? May 26 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Passenger" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $27 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 12d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 14d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 33d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 33d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 33d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 33d
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? SELL Yes $0 33d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 SELL Yes $1 33d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 57¢ $2 33d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? SELL No 99¢ $10 33d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes $0 33d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 33d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 98¢ $10 33d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? SELL No 99¢ $11 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 33d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No $12 33d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? SELL Yes 93¢ $10 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 33d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $1 33d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 33d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 26? SELL No 99¢ $1 33d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 33d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? SELL No 99¢ $2 33d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 99¢ $2 33d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 81¢ $1 33d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $3 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.59 · official $15.59 (match) · 117 history records