Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4edc…1a4a other 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%6W / 245L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$20
14 days−$30
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$42
sports 22% −$18
politics 8% −$10
economics 8% −$9
culture 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
world 3% −$5
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses6 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 252
History coverage132d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $156 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $990 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $565 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $205 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $342 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $405 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $329 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $572 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $193 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $112 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $401 −$2 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $124 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $203 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $856 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $419 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $150 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $306 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $200 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $470 −$2 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $327 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $130 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $290 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $385 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 03 $261 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 03 $232 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $610 −$2 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $199 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 7h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 8h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 9h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 11h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 11h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 14h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 15h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $55 21h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 23h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 27h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 28h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 30h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 34h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 35h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $7 36h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 37h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 39h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 40h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $56 42h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $56 43h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $53 43h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $3 45h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $56 46h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.77 · official $54.77 (match) · 1376 history records