Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4edb…1635 other 262 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%21W / 240L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$26
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$44
sports 25% −$20
politics 9% −$7
culture 8% −$8
economics 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$3
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 261 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses21 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)261 / 262
History coverage138d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $385 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $399 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $191 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 17 $450 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $514 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $398 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $421 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $368 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $246 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $619 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $600 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $300 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $292 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $128 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $245 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $535 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $411 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $219 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $755 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $218 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $131 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $218 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $305 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $233 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $414 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 3h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 6h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 8h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 9h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 11h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 11h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 12h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 15h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 17h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $57 17h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $57 18h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 24h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 26h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 30h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 31h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 33h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 34h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $57 39h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $57 40h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 46h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 47h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.17 · official $56.17 (match) · 1463 history records