Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4E 0x4ed2…0dda sports 553 markets active 1h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$775 (+3%) realized +$810 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%279W / 267L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$304est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$690
7 days+$1,026
14 days+$1,296
30 days+$1,239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$2,040
other 6% −$690
world 3% +$191
tech 3% −$880
culture 0% −$31
crypto 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 +7.4% -2.8% 60% 56% +1.8%
≤30d 311 +4.9% -5.1% 55% 52% -1.5%
≤90d 506 +3.4% -6.4% 51% 49% -8.8%
all 546 +4.6% -5.3% 51% 49% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 49% -7.6%
10% -14.4% 45% -16.4%
15% -22.7% 42% -24.5%
20% -30.2% 39% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$48 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$810
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses279 / 267
Est. fees paid−$304
Open positions7
Markets (closed)546 / 553
History coverage545d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 546 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 55¢ 55¢ $56 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 55¢ 49¢ $55 $49 −$6 (-11%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 36¢ 46¢ $37 $48 +$11 (+29%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Under 46¢ 30¢ $47 $31 −$16 (-35%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 31¢ 16¢ $31 $16 −$14 (-47%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 43¢ 36¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 186 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $38 +$65 +172%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $89 +$12 +13%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 +$64 +165%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $48 +$55 +114%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $48 +$55 +114%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $53 +$49 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $92 +$9 +10%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$34 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 +$30 +146%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 16 $48 +$55 +114%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $80 −$79 -99%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $72 +$30 +42%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $27 +$23 +85%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $44 −$43 -98%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 16 $40 −$39 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $45 −$44 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 16 $64 −$63 -99%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $70 +$32 +46%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $45 −$44 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $52 −$51 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $43 +$60 +140%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $19 +$32 +172%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 16 $70 +$32 +46%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $51 +$52 +103%
Set 2 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska Jun 16 $15 +$11 +75%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $47 +$56 +119%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $54 +$48 +90%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $47 +$56 +119%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $86 +$220 +256%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $73 +$29 +40%
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 16 $43 −$42 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $44 −$43 -98%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $47 −$46 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $53 −$52 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $43 +$8 +18%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $41 +$9 +23%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 16 $28 +$24 +86%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $37 +$14 +38%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $138 +$65 +47%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $91 +$10 +11%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $87 +$14 +16%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $96 +$5 +5%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 16 $28 −$28 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $43 +$60 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 55¢ $57 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $56 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $32 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $89 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $39 4h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 36¢ $38 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $42 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $92 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $21 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $80 8h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $44 10h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $38 10h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 46¢ $48 10h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 38¢ $40 10h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 46¢ $48 10h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 46¢ $48 10h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $45 10h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 62¢ $64 10h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 51¢ $53 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $21 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $68 10h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 54¢ $27 11h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 70¢ $72 11h
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) BUY Lehecka 46¢ $48 11h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 43¢ $45 12h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 68¢ $70 12h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 50¢ $52 12h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 27¢ $28 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.34 · official $207.09 (match) · 1109 history records