Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4ecf…2873
crypto · 28 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$31 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17 · open −$51
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$6
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage7d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 4 History 24 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Yes 90¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 33¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $76 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $96 +$3 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 −$9 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +43%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $13 −$7 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $7 +$1 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $7 +$10 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 43% +$13
weather 30% −$52
crypto 25% +$4
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 67¢ $11 48m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 58¢ $10 49m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 67¢ $12 50m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 54¢ $10 58m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 45¢ $14 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 47¢ $15 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 56¢ $14 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 61¢ $5 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 60¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 59¢ $9 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 62¢ $5 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 37¢ $18 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 31¢ $15 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 29h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 29h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 29h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? SELL No $1 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +18.1% +6.8% 67% 50% -5.4%
≤30d 24 +18.1% +6.8% 67% 50% -5.4%
≤90d 24 +18.1% +6.8% 67% 50% -5.4%
all 24 +18.1% +6.8% 67% 50% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.8% 50% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -3.4% 29% -14.5%
15% -12.7% 25% -22.7%
20% -21.3% 17% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.76 · official $5.76 (match) · 178 history records