Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:05:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4ece…9b0a
other · 42 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
−$4 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses22 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage459d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 1 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $64 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $19 +$1 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $49 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Dec 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Dec 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 07 $12 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $12 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 04 $11 $0 +2%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 31 $11 $0 +4%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 30 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2025 French Open? May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110000 on May 16? May 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 08 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $6 −$1 -10%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? Apr 30 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 12 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% +$1
other 26% +$2
politics 15% +$1
crypto 6% +$2
culture 3% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $22 30m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $16 30m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $11 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $26 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $46 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $19 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $27 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $49 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 99¢ $49 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $49 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 34¢ $49 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $34 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $26 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.3% -8.4% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 9 +1.2% -8.5% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 9 +1.2% -8.5% 33% 0% -9.2%
all 41 +1.6% -8.1% 54% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 2% -8.8%
10% -16.9% 2% -17.5%
15% -24.9% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.26 · official $0.26 (match) · 126 history records