Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:35:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4ecd…1da3
sports · 340 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$740 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$744 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$72
Realized−$744
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses164 / 171
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions5
Markets (closed)335 / 340
History coverage238d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 5 History 335 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$15
14 days+$66
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-11%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 56¢ 78¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+38%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 62¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Kiwoom DRX 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Sinners 54¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Vitality 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Knicks vs. 76ers 76ers 67¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? No 84¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Cloud9 38¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs FlyQuest 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 77¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner FURIA 67¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Kiwoom DRX 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? No 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Magic 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas - Game 1 Winner Dignitas 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner BC.Game Esports 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Raptors 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 70¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 +$17 +114%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$8 +79%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $8 +$15 +186%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 06 $10 +$5 +47%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 05 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $25 +$12 +48%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $11 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $15 +$7 +48%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $8 −$8 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 +$17 +165%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 04 $8 +$5 +65%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $13 +$8 +64%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $10 +$12 +114%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $13 +$6 +44%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $10 +$3 +27%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 31 $15 +$8 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 +$13 +124%
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifi May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $2 +$3 +140%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 30 $10 +$14 +140%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 30 $15 +$10 +65%
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 30 $20 +$4 +20%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $20 +$5 +26%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challen May 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 28 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 28 $5 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $5 +$12 +226%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $15 +$5 +31%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $10 −$4 -38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 May 24 $10 +$8 +79%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $10 +$13 +124%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 91% −$618
other 5% −$49
world 2% −$67
culture 1% −$17
crypto 1% −$6
politics 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 62¢ $5 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $5 15h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 46¢ $15 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 55¢ $10 28h
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) BUY BIG 56¢ $15 4d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 38¢ $15 5d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 45¢ $10 6d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 6d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 48¢ $15 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $10 6d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY FlyQuest 50¢ $10 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY Yes 34¢ $6 7d
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY Yes 5¢ $3 7d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY Yes 35¢ $2 7d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri BUY Yes 39¢ $4 7d
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) BUY Dplus KIA 67¢ $10 7d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 55¢ $7 7d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 67¢ $25 7d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 70¢ $10 8d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Heroic 52¢ $8 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 63¢ $11 8d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner BUY GamerLegion 67¢ $15 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Under 60¢ $8 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $10 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $35 10d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $22 10d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL GamerLegion 100¢ $22 10d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 60¢ $13 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -19.6% -27.2% 36% 36% -21.0%
≤30d 79 +7.4% -2.8% 58% 57% +4.9%
≤90d 282 -27.2% -34.2% 43% 41% -32.1%
all 335 -15.1% -23.2% 49% 47% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 47% -21.4%
10% -30.6% 41% -28.9%
15% -37.3% 32% -35.8%
20% -43.4% 23% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.49 · official $72.49 (match) · 663 history records