trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +50.0% | +35.7% | 100% | 100% | +35.7% |
| ≤30d | 18 | -15.4% | -23.4% | 61% | 61% | -27.1% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -15.4% | -23.4% | 61% | 61% | -27.1% |
| all | 18 | -15.4% | -23.4% | 61% | 61% | -27.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -23.4% | 61% | -27.1% |
| 10% | -30.8% | 28% | -34.1% |
| 15% | -37.4% | 22% | -40.5% |
| 20% | -43.6% | 11% | -46.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | 74¢ | 96¢ | $150 | $196 | +$46 (+30%) |
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 71¢ | 86¢ | $71 | $86 | +$14 (+20%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $66 | +$34 | +52% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $68 | +$32 | +48% |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Jun 03 | $61 | +$13 | +22% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $100 | +$33 | +33% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | May 31 | $100 | +$50 | +50% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 31 | $101 | −$50 | -49% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? | May 31 | $100 | +$11 | +11% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 30 | $100 | +$11 | +11% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 27 | $101 | +$19 | +19% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | May 27 | $97 | +$13 | +13% |
| Spread: Knicks (-2.5) | May 26 | $19 | +$18 | +93% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? | May 26 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? | May 25 | $102 | +$21 | +21% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 25 | $102 | −$102 | -100% |
| Spread: Spurs (-1.5) | May 25 | $102 | −$102 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 23? | May 25 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) | May 24 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 23 | $66 | −$65 | -99% |