Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ecc…2174 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$274 (-16%) realized −$334 · open +$60
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$67
14 days+$80
30 days−$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$93
sports 30% −$307
finance 14% +$56
other 12% +$81
crypto 6% +$15
politics 3% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +50.0% +35.7% 100% 100% +35.7%
≤30d 18 -15.4% -23.4% 61% 61% -27.1%
≤90d 18 -15.4% -23.4% 61% 61% -27.1%
all 18 -15.4% -23.4% 61% 61% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 61% -27.1%
10% -30.8% 28% -34.1%
15% -37.4% 22% -40.5%
20% -43.6% 11% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$79 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized−$334
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage25d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 96¢ $150 $196 +$46 (+30%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $71 $86 +$14 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $66 +$34 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $61 +$13 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$33 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $100 +$50 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $101 −$50 -49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $100 +$11 +11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $100 +$11 +11%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $101 +$19 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $97 +$13 +13%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $19 +$18 +93%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $102 +$21 +21%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 23? May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $66 −$65 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 14h
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 97¢ $74 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $133 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $150 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 28¢ $52 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 53¢ $101 17d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? SELL No 100¢ $51 17d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? SELL No 100¢ $60 17d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $111 17d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? BUY No 90¢ $100 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 99¢ $119 21d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 83¢ $101 21d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? SELL No 100¢ $110 21d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 79¢ $61 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $100 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? SELL No 95¢ $123 22d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $19 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $150 22d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY No 66¢ $100 22d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $100 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? BUY No 77¢ $102 22d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? BUY No 88¢ $97 22d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 34¢ $102 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 23? BUY No $6 24d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Thunder 50¢ $102 24d
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) BUY Cavaliers 50¢ $25 24d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.11 · official $281.11 (match) · 38 history records