Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4ecb…514c
crypto · 44 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$41,803 -97%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$42,413 · open −$530
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,960
Realized−$42,413
Unrealized−$530
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses22 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)142 / 44
History coverage3d
Avg bet$975
Trades / day1211.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 142 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39,896
7 days−$42,413
14 days−$42,413
30 days−$42,413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 69¢ 84¢ $1,380 $1,670 +$290 (+21%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 77¢ 98¢ $462 $588 +$126 (+27%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 83¢ 32¢ $830 $316 −$513 (-62%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $465 $261 −$204 (-44%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $353 $124 −$229 (-65%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Down 40¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+150%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 24¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+308%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 40¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+150%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 28¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+262%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $750 $0 −$750 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $882 $0 −$882 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1,426 $0 −$1,426 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1,563 $0 −$1,563 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $460 $0 −$460 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? No 87¢ 0¢ $5,392 $0 −$5,392 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $990 $0 −$990 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Dplus KIA 4¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 +$1,470 +3378913%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 +$1,100 +1926440%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 12 $750 −$750 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $460 −$460 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 12 $5,392 −$5,392 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $69 +$12 +17%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Corn" during Iowa speech? Jun 12 $374 −$374 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $280 −$280 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 12 $314 −$314 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $810 −$810 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Jun 12 $1,680 −$1,680 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $1,520 −$1,520 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $502 −$502 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $548 −$548 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $288 −$288 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $492 −$34 -7%
Will Trump say "Death tax" during Iowa speech? Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? Jun 12 $825 −$825 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $440 −$440 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $745 −$745 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $384 −$384 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 12 $460 −$460 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Jun 12 $1,315 −$1,315 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 28? Jun 12 $340 −$340 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $752 −$752 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $409 −$409 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $636 −$636 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $810 −$810 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $775 −$775 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $699 −$699 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $448 −$445 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-28? Jun 12 $129 −$129 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 12 $526 −$526 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $180 +$692 +385%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $211 −$211 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% +$1,308
other 8% −$530
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $22 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $32 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $22 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $30 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $63 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 +2.3% -7.4% 15% 15% -57.6%
≤30d 142 +2.3% -7.4% 15% 15% -57.6%
≤90d 142 +2.3% -7.4% 15% 15% -57.6%
all 142 +2.3% -7.4% 15% 15% -57.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1211.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 15% -57.6%
10% -16.3% 15% -61.7%
15% ← realistic here -24.4% 14% -65.4%
20% -31.8% 14% -68.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,959.84 · official $2,959.09 (match) · 3500 history records