Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4eca…5f09 sports 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$158 (-7%) realized −$153 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%87W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$37
14 days−$33
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$191
other 7% +$35
crypto 2% −$6
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -62.1% -65.7% 18% 9% -52.4%
≤30d 65 -14.0% -22.2% 49% 38% -17.9%
≤90d 163 -13.1% -21.4% 53% 48% -17.0%
all 163 -13.1% -21.4% 53% 48% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 48% -17.0%
10% -28.9% 44% -24.9%
15% -35.8% 33% -32.2%
20% -42.1% 20% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$153
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses87 / 76
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)163 / 178
History coverage41d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 40¢ 39¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Overwatch: Crazy Raccoon vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Crazy Raccoon 73¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $8 +$4 +55%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $10 −$1 -8%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 22 $5 −$2 -34%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $15 +$1 +4%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Japan Jun 21 $10 +$18 +178%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $23 +$1 +6%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -2%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $6 −$2 -34%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou Jun 19 $7 −$1 -12%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $6 $0 +6%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $12 +$8 +67%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Jun 19 $15 +$3 +17%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $13 +$2 +16%
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $13 +$1 +4%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $11 +$3 +24%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $7 +$3 +42%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $7 −$4 -54%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 −$1 -7%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $80 +$18 +23%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $50 +$21 +42%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $22 +$14 +64%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 10 $35 −$35 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $61 −$61 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $30 +$23 +76%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 09 $15 −$3 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 49m
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 49m
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 49m
Overwatch: Crazy Raccoon vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Gr BUY Crazy Raccoon 73¢ $5 1h
Overwatch: Crazy Raccoon vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Gr SELL Crazy Raccoon 60¢ $17 1h
Overwatch: Crazy Raccoon vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Gr BUY Crazy Raccoon 95¢ $28 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Iga Swiatek 73¢ $15 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Wi BUY 21¢ $6 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will N BUY 13¢ $5 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can BUY Francisco Comesana 75¢ $5 5d
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech SELL Naomi Osaka 72¢ $0 6d
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 64¢ $5 6d
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 75¢ $5 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 96¢ $15 6d
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech SELL Naomi Osaka 70¢ $9 6d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $5 6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND W BUY 32¢ $10 6d
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 75¢ $10 6d
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Katie Boulter 74¢ $5 6d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $5 7d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Japan BUY 35¢ $10 7d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Tommy Paul 94¢ $23 7d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 81¢ $1 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 49¢ $2 8d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 98¢ $3 8d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 96¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.28 · official $6.28 (match) · 353 history records