Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T11:01:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4ec7…ed98
sports · 1589 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$900 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$891 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$90
Realized−$891
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses897 / 600
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions39
Markets (closed)1497 / 1589
History coverage11d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day285.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 39 History 1497 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,298
7 days−$1,135
14 days−$891
30 days−$891
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 36¢ 81¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+125%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 52¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 60¢ 98¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+63%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 78¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 70¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 69¢ 90¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 80¢ 57¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? No 78¢ 94¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+21%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 62¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Club Blooming win on 2026-05-23? Yes 76¢ 43¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 60¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-20%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 71¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+38%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 4.5 Corners Under 29¢ 44¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 82¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 47¢ 52¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 78¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 49¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 74¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Bo Nickal 74¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 49¢ 46¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 48¢ 46¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
World Championships: Austria vs. Germany Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Universitario vs. Club Aurora end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Winthrop University - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Mi Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Busta Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 169.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. OL Lyonnes: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Yusuke Takahashi Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Switzerland vs Malta Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs 1WIN - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ka Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Somerset Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% +$264
crypto 33% +$177
other 3% +$14
politics 0% +$14
finance 0% −$1
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 100¢ $4 45m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 27¢ $1 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 3h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $2 3h
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan SELL Naoya Honda 100¢ $2 3h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 50¢ $1 4h
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan BUY Naoya Honda 85¢ $2 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 17¢ $1 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 29¢ $1 5h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Chicago Cubs 99¢ $3 6h
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Jangjun Kim SELL Jangjun Kim 100¢ $2 7h
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Kayo Nishimura SELL Hikaru Sato 100¢ $2 7h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 83¢ $2 7h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $2 8h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 9h
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Kayo Nishimura BUY Hikaru Sato 91¢ $2 9h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 9h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 29¢ $1 10h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $2 10h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 42¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 10h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $2 10h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 11h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1051 -10.4% -19.0% 53% 47% -41.8%
≤30d 1497 -1.4% -10.8% 60% 51% -24.5%
≤90d 1497 -1.4% -10.8% 60% 51% -24.5%
all 1497 -1.4% -10.8% 60% 51% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover285.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 51% -24.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 41% -31.7%
15% -27.1% 30% -38.3%
20% -34.2% 22% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.68 · official $89.56 (match) · 3500 history records