Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4ec5…3193
sports · 15 markets active 1h ago
6.5score
+$2,338 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,805 · open −$3,342
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,627
Realized+$5,805
Unrealized−$3,342
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Est. fees paid−$455
Open positions7
Markets (closed)8 / 15
History coverage25d
Avg bet$2,143
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 7 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,615
7 days+$5,129
14 days+$5,742
30 days+$5,805
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 60¢ 44¢ $1,139 $843 −$296 (-26%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $361 $272 −$89 (-25%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $252 $252 +$0 (+0%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 19¢ 32¢ $104 $175 +$71 (+68%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $56 $33 −$23 (-41%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $38 $30 −$8 (-21%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 68¢ 0¢ $3,019 $22 −$2,997 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3,045 −$3,041 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $11,260 +$5,656 +50%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3,041 +$2,514 +83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,004 +$58 +6%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $1,001 +$24 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,306 +$224 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $1,010 +$306 +30%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $402 +$63 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% +$2,196
other 5% +$264
culture 5% −$385
finance 3% +$306
crypto 3% +$58
tech 3% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 66¢ $960 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 67¢ $1,848 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 66¢ $1,998 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $2 7h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $8,077 8h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3,045 8h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 45¢ $5,082 32h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 55¢ $5,806 32h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 57¢ $6,178 33h
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 54¢ $3,041 5d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 85¢ $1,306 13d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $39 18d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $58 18d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $107 18d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $256 18d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 86¢ $402 24d
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $376 24d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,162 24d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 97¢ $1,001 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 76¢ $1,010 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 94¢ $1,004 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.0% +0.4% 67% 67% +17.2%
≤30d 8 +13.1% +2.3% 88% 62% +14.3%
≤90d 8 +13.1% +2.3% 88% 62% +14.3%
all 8 +13.1% +2.3% 88% 62% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.3% 62% +14.3%
10% ← realistic here -7.5% 38% +3.3%
15% -16.4% 25% -6.6%
20% -24.6% 25% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,627.38 · official $1,627.38 (match) · 30 history records