Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ec5…def4 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$363 (-50%) realized −$355 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%2W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$123
7 days−$211
14 days−$325
30 days−$434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$393
sports 12% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-76.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -67.9% -71.0% 8% 8% -68.1%
≤30d 22 -73.9% -76.4% 9% 5% -68.8%
≤90d 22 -73.9% -76.4% 9% 5% -68.8%
all 22 -73.9% -76.4% 9% 5% -68.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -76.4% 5% -68.8%
10% -78.6% 5% -71.7%
15% -80.7% 5% -74.5%
20% -82.6% 0% -77.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -74% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -83% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$22 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$355
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses2 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage16d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steven Gerrard be the next manager of Manchester City FC? Yes $9 $1 −$8 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $85 −$53 -62%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 −$6 -22%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$8 +36%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$3 -16%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -94%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 1 Scotland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $53 −$7 -13%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $107 −$14 -13%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 31 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $21 $0 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-11? May 31 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $22 −$21 -94%
Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? May 31 $17 −$16 -94%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? May 31 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-11? May 31 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $53 57m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $27 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $21 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $20 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 12h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $32 12h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 12h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $27 12h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes $10 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes $21 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes $12 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 43¢ $46 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $53 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes $107 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $93 10d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $21 16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 16d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $21 16d
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes $21 16d
Will Steven Gerrard be the next manager of Manchester City FC? BUY Yes $10 16d
Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? BUY Yes $17 16d
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes $4 16d
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $10 16d
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.08 · official $1.08 (match) · 49 history records