Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ec2…3fe2 sports 963 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$283 (-0%) realized −$283 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate88%847W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$289
other 9% +$131
crypto 3% −$50
world 1% −$117
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% +$4
finance 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.7%
≤30d 36 -2.5% -11.8% 94% 6% -14.5%
≤90d 722 -0.9% -10.4% 93% 7% -9.5%
all 962 -1.9% -11.2% 88% 16% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 16% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 8% -18.6%
15% -27.5% 4% -26.5%
20% -34.6% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$22 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$283
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses847 / 115
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions1
Markets (closed)962 / 963
History coverage119d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 962 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 96¢ $92 $92 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $87 +$3 +3%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Nova Esports - Map 1 Winner May 31 $140 +$5 +3%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 1 Winner May 31 $137 +$3 +2%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner May 31 $99 +$1 +1%
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifi May 31 $134 +$3 +2%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $129 +$4 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 May 31 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $125 +$4 +3%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $99 $0 +0%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $124 +$1 +1%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Molde FK win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $118 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $114 +$6 +5%
Valorant: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO5) - China Evolution Series Act 2 Pla May 30 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $109 +$1 +1%
Henan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Henan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $107 +$1 +1%
Valorant: All Gamers vs TYLOO - Map 3 Winner May 30 $98 +$2 +2%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qualif May 30 $82 +$2 +2%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 May 30 $302 −$301 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 May 30 $95 +$5 +5%
Valorant: All Gamers vs TEC Esports - Map 2 Winner May 29 $295 +$5 +2%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $471 +$7 +2%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) May 29 $108 +$1 +1%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $194 +$6 +3%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 May 29 $56 +$1 +1%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $250 +$30 +12%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 29 $208 +$44 +21%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $206 +$2 +1%
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America: St May 28 $94 +$6 +6%
Valorant: JD Gaming vs Nova Esports - Map 1 Winner May 26 $197 −$197 -100%
PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty May 26 $203 +$4 +2%
Valorant: All Gamers vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - China Evolution Series May 25 $180 +$3 +2%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 25 $240 +$23 +10%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 4 Winner May 25 $243 +$2 +1%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 3 Winner May 25 $216 +$13 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $219 +$11 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 3 Winner May 24 $218 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 24 $196 +$19 +10%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR - Map 2 Winner May 24 $10 $0 +1%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 24 $334 +$16 +5%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 181.5 May 24 $203 +$1 +1%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $297 +$3 +1%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 May 24 $315 +$15 +5%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG - Map 4 Winner May 24 $270 +$30 +11%
Valorant: Nova Esports vs KeepBest Gaming (BO3) - China Evolution Seri May 23 $277 +$3 +1%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $80 +$1 +1%
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 4.5 May 23 $198 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 23 $76 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $198 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $39 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $5 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL No 100¢ $90 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 97¢ $87 12h
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Nova Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL TEC Esports 100¢ $145 23d
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Nova Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY TEC Esports 98¢ $36 23d
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Nova Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY TEC Esports 98¢ $8 23d
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Nova Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY TEC Esports 96¢ $96 23d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Nongshim RedForce 100¢ $140 23d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Nongshim RedForce 95¢ $38 23d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Nongshim RedForce 99¢ $99 23d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner SELL NRG 100¢ $100 23d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner BUY NRG 99¢ $99 23d
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifi SELL LOUD 100¢ $137 23d
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifi BUY LOUD 97¢ $8 23d
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifi BUY LOUD 97¢ $28 23d
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifi BUY LOUD 98¢ $98 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 99¢ $134 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 98¢ $34 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 95¢ $95 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 SELL Over 100¢ $130 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 BUY Over 99¢ $30 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 BUY Over 99¢ $99 23d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 100¢ $129 23d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 23d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 97¢ $116 23d
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 23d
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 23d
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 100¢ $89 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.91 · official $91.91 (match) · 2814 history records