Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:17:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4E 0x4ebf…b716 crypto 1078 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (120 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$180 (-1%) realized −$180 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate68%847W / 404L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day119.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$470
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (120 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 571 -34.6% -40.8% 42% 34% -30.1%
≤30d 1251 -16.2% -24.2% 68% 34% -16.0%
≤90d 1251 -16.2% -24.2% 68% 34% -16.0%
all 1251 -16.2% -24.2% 68% 34% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 34% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -31.5% 15% -24.0%
15% -38.1% 4% -31.4%
20% -44.2% 1% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$180
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses847 / 404
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1251 / 1078
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day119.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 0¢ 57¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Down 41¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 310 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$9 -538%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$6 -176%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$21 -103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records