Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:34:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4ebd…7e78
crypto · 729 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$2 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses557 / 166
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)723 / 729
History coverage146d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 6 History 723 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$17
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? No 79¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $54 +$9 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $4 $0 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $4 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $4 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $3 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $3 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $3 $0 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 31 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $3 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +124%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? May 25 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% +$3
sports 2% +$1
other 1% −$3
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $5 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY No 96¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY No 92¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? SELL No 97¢ $6 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? BUY No 81¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $4 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY No 66¢ $38 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? SELL No 31¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY No 85¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 11% -5.9%
≤30d 170 +6.4% -3.8% 81% 37% -5.3%
≤90d 414 +5.2% -4.8% 85% 33% -10.0%
all 723 +1.3% -8.4% 77% 37% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 37% -9.4%
10% -17.2% 25% -18.1%
15% -25.2% 20% -26.0%
20% -32.5% 18% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.47 · official $22.47 (match) · 1558 history records