Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ebd…eb2c sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,005 (-79%) realized −$2,005 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$1,829
sports 4% −$53
world 2% −$40
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -8.9% -17.5% 31% 31% -79.1%
≤30d 26 -8.9% -17.5% 31% 31% -79.1%
≤90d 26 -8.9% -17.5% 31% 31% -79.1%
all 26 -8.9% -17.5% 31% 31% -79.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 31% -79.1%
10% -25.4% 31% -81.1%
15% -32.6% 31% -82.9%
20% -39.2% 27% -84.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$119 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,005
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage5d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 −$4 -18%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $133 +$90 +68%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$89 +44%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$9 +291%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,997 −$1,991 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$15 +712%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +86%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 40m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $65 46m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 51m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 51m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $158 55m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $102 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $292 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $203 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $499 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,499 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $56 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $40 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 2d
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes $4 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $2 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 4d
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 4d
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records