Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:54:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ebc…a33d sports 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (284 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$43,179 (+33%) realized +$43,171 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +215% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +133% what you keep after slip
Net edge+133%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate57%45W / 34L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,823per market
Trades / day283.9pace
Fees−$2,119est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,477now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$8,084
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (284 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+184.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +338.8% +297.0% 48% 36% -14.5%
≤30d 79 +214.9% +184.9% 57% 37% -9.4%
≤90d 79 +214.9% +184.9% 57% 37% -9.4%
all 79 +214.9% +184.9% 57% 37% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover283.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +184.9% 37% -9.4%
10% +157.6% 29% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here +132.7% 27% -25.9%
20% +109.9% 23% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +215% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$2,011) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +424% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
39.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$447 vs −$627 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$1,477
Realized+$43,171
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses45 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$2,119
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 47
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$2,823
Trades / day283.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 47¢ 52¢ $1,134 $1,250 +$116 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner K27 92¢ 100¢ $99 $107 +$9 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner 100 Thieves 80¢ 75¢ $108 $101 −$7 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs 100 Thieves 50¢ 48¢ $17 $17 −$1 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner K27 22¢ 25¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $104 −$667 -639%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,851 −$1,578 -85%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $42 −$231 -548%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 16 $57 +$102 +179%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 16 $2,202 −$2,801 -127%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 16 $44 −$502 -1138%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $14 +$1,068 +7695%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - CS Asia Championship Jun 16 $228 −$119 -52%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 16 $6 +$72 +1118%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Play Jun 16 $2 +$17 +1099%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $465 −$761 -164%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $57 +$841 +1475%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $33 +$593 +1802%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G Jun 16 $3 −$29 -1116%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 +$4 +812%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 16 $7,094 −$2,799 -40%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 16 $272 −$1,893 -697%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs magic - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $12 +$39 +326%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 16 $77 +$276 +358%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs magic - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playof Jun 16 $900 −$1,102 -122%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 16 $39 −$286 -735%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $15 +$230 +1553%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $69 −$166 -241%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $6 +$299 +5015%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 16 $7 +$986 +15048%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NIP (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 16 $599 −$219 -37%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $0 +$4,065 +5427268%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $51 −$27 -53%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $37 −$649 -1765%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 16 $1,805 −$1,806 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $8 −$256 -3088%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs NIP - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $12 +$180 +1478%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $101 −$153 -151%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $53 −$2,030 -3846%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $10,147 −$1,082 -11%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $8,536 +$3,154 +37%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,648 +$34 +2%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $2,466 +$144 +6%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,535 −$164 -6%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $3,780 +$268 +7%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $1,385 −$134 -10%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,910 +$249 +9%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,879 +$1,047 +56%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $4,406 −$63 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,765 +$79 +2%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 15 $7,301 +$473 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,842 −$13 -0%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,011 +$798 +40%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $436 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 49¢ $127 0m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 49¢ $652 0m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 48¢ $11 1m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 82¢ $308 1m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $14 1m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 86¢ $86 1m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $91 2m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 86¢ $4 2m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 87¢ $230 3m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 89¢ $9 3m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 90¢ $9 3m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 89¢ $9 3m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 88¢ $96 3m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 90¢ $4 4m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 89¢ $4 4m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 44¢ $67 4m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 90¢ $9 4m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 91¢ $9 4m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 43¢ $19 4m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 92¢ $9 4m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 90¢ $9 4m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 43¢ $16 4m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 90¢ $90 5m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 90¢ $18 5m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 91¢ $9 5m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 90¢ $4 5m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 90¢ $9 5m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 91¢ $545 5m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 92¢ $9 5m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 92¢ $9 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,476.79 · official $1,476.79 (match) · 3500 history records