Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4E 0x4ebb…061a sports 864 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 141d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79,006 (-14%) realized −$79,123 · open +$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%456W / 401L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$656per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$1,477est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$857now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$341
7 days+$1,239
14 days+$1,372
30 days+$1,529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$28,994
other 39% −$24,622
world 2% −$75
crypto 2% +$259
politics 1% +$449
finance 0% −$47
culture 0% −$491
economics 0% −$41
weather 0% −$150
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +34.8% +22.0% 71% 71% +19.6%
≤30d 114 +13.0% +2.2% 61% 61% -2.3%
≤90d 487 -1.7% -11.1% 54% 50% -13.8%
all 857 -5.3% -14.3% 53% 51% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 51% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 51% -26.0%
15% -30.0% 45% -33.1%
20% -36.9% 34% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$630) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$387 vs −$579 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$857
Realized−$79,123
Unrealized+$117
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses456 / 401
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$1,477
Open positions6
Markets (closed)857 / 864
History coverage142d ⚠
Avg bet$656
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 857 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $320 $317 −$3 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 25¢ 87¢ $50 $174 +$124 (+248%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $142 −$142 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Sprea Jun 15 $51 +$79 +156%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $426 +$405 +95%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 +$90 +60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $122 +$101 +83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $131 +$75 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $122 +$128 +105%
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/ Jun 13 $51 +$193 +376%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$160 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $154 +$67 +44%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $151 +$72 +48%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $152 +$107 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $151 +$66 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $141 +$74 +52%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 11 $131 +$78 +59%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $131 −$131 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $157 −$157 -100%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $107 +$102 +96%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 11 $141 +$74 +52%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $151 +$70 +46%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 09 $132 +$72 +55%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $131 +$78 +60%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $112 +$127 +114%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $151 +$54 +36%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $122 +$85 +70%
Spread: Kosovo (-1.5) Jun 08 $132 +$85 +65%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $315 +$296 +94%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $508 −$508 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $126 +$82 +65%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $141 +$68 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $161 +$52 +32%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $538 −$538 -100%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $811 −$811 -100%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $507 +$419 +83%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $131 +$75 +57%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $161 +$49 +31%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $132 −$132 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 05 $172 +$94 +55%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $156 +$48 +31%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $152 +$83 +55%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $154 −$154 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 05 $142 −$142 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $325 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $122 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $152 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $831 3h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $142 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Sprea BUY 38¢ $51 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $304 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $122 27h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $152 27h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $122 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $206 28h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $250 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 41h
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 57¢ $132 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Bra BUY 22¢ $51 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $132 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $131 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $132 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $122 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $312 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/ BUY 21¢ $51 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $154 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $152 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $152 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 67¢ $151 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 SELL Over 100¢ $215 4d
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) SELL Spurs 100¢ $209 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 65¢ $141 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $857.27 · official $857.27 (match) · 3500 history records