Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:00:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4E 0x4eb8…9231 crypto 97 markets active 4d ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (600 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35,644 (-975%) realized −$35,638 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate32%31W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day600.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$151
other 2% −$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (600 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +7.1% -3.1% 23% 17% -15.6%
≤30d 96 +1.2% -8.4% 32% 17% -13.3%
≤90d 96 +1.2% -8.4% 32% 17% -13.3%
all 96 +1.2% -8.4% 32% 17% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover600.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 17% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 11% -21.6%
15% -25.2% 6% -29.2%
20% -32.5% 4% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
32.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$35,638
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses31 / 65
Open positions8
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day600.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 19¢ 18¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 73¢ 73¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 64¢ 68¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 73¢ 54¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-27%)
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 88¢ 85¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 84¢ 54¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will Russell Vought leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 91¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$4 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $29 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $149 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $28 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $51 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $96 −$13 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $153 −$17 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$16 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$11 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $57 −$22 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $69 −$22 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $170 −$9 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $118 +$31 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $73 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $58 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $58 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$16 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $63 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $42 +$40 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $34 −$9 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $62 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $33 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $50 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.23 · official $73.00 (match) · 3500 history records