Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4eb6…5517 sports 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 502d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$978 (+6%) realized +$1,054 · open −$76
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate49%69W / 71L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$1,373
14 days+$1,379
30 days+$1,298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$408
sports 30% −$381
crypto 17% +$797
finance 5% +$62
economics 1% −$38
politics 1% −$1
world 1% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +19.9% +8.5% 40% 40% +8.5%
≤30d 36 -1.6% -11.0% 31% 22% +4.9%
≤90d 82 -0.9% -10.3% 40% 17% +0.9%
all 140 -1.6% -11.0% 49% 25% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 25% -4.2%
10% -19.5% 24% -13.3%
15% -27.3% 18% -21.7%
20% -34.4% 16% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$30 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

502d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized+$1,054
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses69 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions20
Markets (closed)140 / 160
History coverage502d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3 No 96¢ 95¢ $96 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nightblood Gaming Win North America ACE Stage 3 No 93¢ 93¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+0%)
Will Liam Ruck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 52¢ 100¢ $31 $60 +$29 (+91%)
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 97¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Division One Win North America ACE Stage 3 Yes $4 $4 +$0 (+14%)
Will Tynan Lawrence be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 20¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-85%)
Will Alberts Smits be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 44¢ 14¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-68%)
Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3 Yes $2 $3 +$0 (+21%)
Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 14¢ $22 $2 −$20 (-92%)
Will Ilya Morozov be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $2 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Will Ethan Belchetz be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Malte Gustafsson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 25¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Will Wyatt Cullen be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Will Elton Hermansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 27¢ $22 $0 −$21 (-98%)
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+125%)
Will Ilya Morozov be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+80%)
Will Oliver Suvanto be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Will Ryan Lin be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Will Mathis Preston be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-28%)
Will Oscar Hemming be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will Elton Hermansson be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-40%)
Will Xavier Villeneuve be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Will Liam Ruck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $20 −$16 -81%
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $97 $0 -0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $19 +$31 +158%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$40 +206%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 +$75 +216%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,994 +$806 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,088 +$712 +65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,050 −$35 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,439 −$139 -10%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $683 −$9 -1%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $308 +$42 +14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $85 +$6 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $60 −$40 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 03 $33 −$13 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 03 $40 −$5 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 03 $44 −$5 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $51 −$1 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 03 $31 −$5 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 03 $27 +$6 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 03 $25 +$2 +9%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 3? Jun 03 $33 −$3 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $91 −$9 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $144 −$6 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $142 −$48 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $138 +$10 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? May 31 $28 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? May 31 $4 $0 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by December 31, 2026? May 31 $21 −$3 -14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 31 $242 +$58 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 25 $103 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 25 $104 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 25 $106 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 25 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $68 +$5 +7%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $64 +$6 +9%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $76 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 24 $55 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 24 $73 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 24 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 24 $87 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 24 $39 −$7 -18%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of May 11 2026? May 15 $0 $0 -4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of May 11 2026? May 15 $1 +$2 +205%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tynan Lawrence be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $0 19m
Will Xavier Villeneuve be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $0 26m
Will Tynan Lawrence be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $1 27m
Will Tynan Lawrence be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $0 27m
Will Ethan Belchetz be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $1 28m
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 97¢ $10 29m
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 97¢ $10 31m
Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $0 31m
Will Ilya Morozov be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $2 39m
Will Ilya Morozov be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $1 39m
Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $0 39m
Will Elton Hermansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $1 46m
Will Alberts Smits be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Will Liam Ruck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Wyatt Cullen be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Oscar Hemming be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Liam Ruck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 52¢ $32 1h
Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Ethan Belchetz be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Tynan Lawrence be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Malte Gustafsson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Elton Hermansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Mathis Preston be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Elton Hermansson be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will Malte Gustafsson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Ilya Morozov be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Alberts Smits be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.12 · official $264.12 (match) · 585 history records