Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4eb6…fd8e crypto 939 markets active 7d ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$97 (-1%) realized −$96 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate96%898W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$94
other 3% −$7
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
sports 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
politics 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 191 -1.5% -10.9% 97% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 244 -1.1% -10.5% 98% 0% -10.2%
all 931 -0.1% -9.6% 96% 4% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 4% -10.4%
10% -18.3% 2% -18.9%
15% -26.2% 2% -26.8%
20% -33.4% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$96
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses898 / 33
Open positions8
Markets (closed)931 / 939
History coverage603d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 931 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? Yes 96¢ 90¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Base FDV above $12B one day after launch? No 79¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 June 8-14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.70 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on June 8? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $90 +$1 +2%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $336 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $230-$235 on the final day of trading of t Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $245? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $8 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.98 · official $40.95 (match) · 2385 history records