Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:52:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4eb4…7e80 world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate30%22W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$7
politics 21% −$1
other 18% +$17
sports 9% −$30
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 29 +1.2% -8.4% 34% 3% -8.9%
≤90d 68 -1.9% -11.3% 26% 1% -9.3%
all 74 +8.9% -1.4% 30% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 5% -9.7%
10% -10.9% 4% -18.4%
15% -19.5% 4% -26.3%
20% -27.4% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses22 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage531d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $41 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $17 $0 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $79 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 +$4 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $16 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $47 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $76 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $86 +$3 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $67 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $58 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $70 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $20 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $51 +$3 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $11 +$1 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $35 −$3 -7%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 18 $32 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $68 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $69 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $32 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $4 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $3 $0 +3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $93 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $33 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $9 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $69 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $31 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $36 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $39 15h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $35 17h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $7 17h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $41 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $2 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $10 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $2 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $41 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $41 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $34 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $4 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $38 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 56¢ $30 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $24 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $2 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $22 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.39 · official $3.17 (match) · 286 history records