Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:31:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4eb4…71c3 sports 288 markets active 1h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,378 (-7%) realized −$1,300 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%157W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$868now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$148
7 days+$326
14 days+$177
30 days+$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$582
sports 42% −$1,027
politics 3% −$14
world 1% −$109
crypto 1% +$6
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -6.1% -15.0% 56% 56% -2.6%
≤30d 48 -7.7% -16.5% 54% 54% -5.3%
≤90d 213 -16.1% -24.1% 54% 46% -17.5%
all 282 -14.0% -22.2% 56% 49% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 49% -17.4%
10% -29.6% 36% -25.3%
15% -36.4% 25% -32.5%
20% -42.7% 16% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$51 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$868
Realized−$1,300
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses157 / 125
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions6
Markets (closed)282 / 288
History coverage207d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $650 $591 −$59 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $46 $79 +$33 (+71%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 21¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+17%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 23¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $254 −$254 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $150 +$16 +11%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $507 −$507 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $506 +$371 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $504 +$172 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $302 +$60 +20%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $541 +$295 +54%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $301 −$301 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 +$40 +20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $254 +$327 +128%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $303 +$158 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $75 +$9 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$5 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$10 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $25 +$44 +172%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$57 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $150 +$63 +42%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 +$3 +31%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $152 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $150 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $254 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $507 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $506 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $302 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $504 44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $251 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $241 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $581 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $254 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $461 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $868.21 · official $868.21 (match) · 755 history records