Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:22:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

4E 0x4eb1…f86a other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$52 (+34%) realized +$52 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip

Net edge+52%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$31per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+51.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+67.5%	+51.6%	100%	100%	+42.1%
≤30d	4	+67.5%	+51.6%	100%	100%	+42.1%
≤90d	4	+67.5%	+51.6%	100%	100%	+42.1%
all	4	+67.5%	+51.6%	100%	100%	+42.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+51.6%	100%	+42.1%
10%	+37.1%	100%	+28.5%
15%	+23.8%	100%	+16.1%
20%	+11.7%	50%	+4.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 66% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +57% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +68% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$62

Realized+$52

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage3d

Avg bet$31

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	69¢	69¢	$62	$62	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$42	+$20	+48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$28	+$14	+50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	+$11	+105%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$62	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$42	17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$42	18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$28	25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$10	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.35 · official $62.36 (match) · 9 history records