Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ead…49bf world 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 379d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$4
other 23% $0
politics 13% +$1
crypto 6% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +4.0% -5.9% 17% 17% -9.2%
≤90d 6 +4.0% -5.9% 17% 17% -9.2%
all 25 +0.4% -9.1% 36% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 4% -10.1%
10% -17.8% 4% -18.7%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

379d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage379d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 93¢ 92¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $7 +$2 +27%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Dec 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Jun 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 22 $17 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 19 $16 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 13–20? Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 10-16? Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sorin Grindeanu? Jun 15 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Young win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 12 $18 $0 -2%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 11 $21 −$4 -17%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 10 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $45 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $25 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $20 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $35 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $10 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $7 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $7 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $7 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 11d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 11d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 12d
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $16 364d
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $16 365d
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? SELL No 98¢ $17 365d
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? BUY No 98¢ $17 365d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? SELL No 99¢ $17 365d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? BUY No 99¢ $17 366d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? SELL No 99¢ $17 366d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.71 · official $44.16 (match) · 62 history records