Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4E 0x4ead…986f sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$47 (+13%) realized +$63 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$39
other 30% −$5
crypto 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +16.3% +5.3% 59% 59% +14.7%
≤30d 17 +16.3% +5.3% 59% 59% +14.7%
≤90d 17 +16.3% +5.3% 59% 59% +14.7%
all 17 +16.3% +5.3% 59% 59% +14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.3% 59% +14.7%
10% -4.8% 59% +3.7%
15% -14.0% 47% -6.3%
20% -22.4% 29% -15.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Over 90¢ 68¢ $68 $52 −$16 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $53 +$15 +27%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $39 +$14 +36%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $31 +$8 +27%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $19 +$7 +38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$22 -45%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $9 +$6 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $16 −$7 -44%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -88%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $68 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $68 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $53 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $39 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $31 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $19 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $26 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $44 2d
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 35¢ $9 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $16 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 43¢ $11 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $12 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 3d
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $9 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.66 · official $52.42 (match) · 35 history records