Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4eac…6cb4 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% $0
world 21% −$1
politics 13% −$1
sports 13% $0
crypto 12% $0
finance 5% −$9
economics 4% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -5.0% -14.1% 0% 0% -15.5%
≤90d 6 -5.0% -14.1% 0% 0% -15.5%
all 32 -2.1% -11.4% 25% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -10.8%
10% -19.9% 0% -19.3%
15% -27.7% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.8% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage288d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $23 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $23 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $23 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $24 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $35 −$9 -26%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $32 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Sep 19 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 15 $0 $0 +6%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 15 $4 $0 +3%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 08 $2 −$1 -49%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 02 $32 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Sep 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $25 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $25 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $23 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $23 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $23 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $23 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $22 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $16 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $6 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $18 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $22 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $0 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $2 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $26 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 24d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? SELL No 98¢ $31 271d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 98¢ $30 271d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? SELL No 99¢ $31 271d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? BUY No 99¢ $31 271d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 271d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 271d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $31 272d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $31 272d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $30 272d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $30 272d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $31 272d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $31 272d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 87¢ $30 273d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 87¢ $32 273d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records