Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4eab…2caa
weather · 1252 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$615 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$594 · open +$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$423
Realized+$594
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses623 / 460
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions88
Markets (closed)1083 / 1252
History coverage13d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day221.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 88 History 1083 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$244
7 days+$202
14 days+$594
30 days+$594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 100¢ $2 $24 +$22 (+899%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? No 62¢ 100¢ $11 $18 +$7 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? No 85¢ 100¢ $15 $17 +$3 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? No 77¢ 77¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? No 84¢ 100¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+19%)
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) XLG Gaming 46¢ 100¢ $7 $15 +$8 (+117%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? No 61¢ 100¢ $9 $15 +$6 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Yes 18¢ 100¢ $2 $14 +$11 (+452%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? No 83¢ 77¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? No 65¢ 66¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? No 67¢ 100¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? No 72¢ 71¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? No 64¢ 62¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? No 73¢ 72¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? No 61¢ 60¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? No 54¢ 100¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+84%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? No 82¢ 80¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 42¢ 100¢ $4 $8 +$5 (+138%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Team Liquid 52¢ 68¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? No 76¢ 72¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? No 68¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? No 85¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? No 60¢ 50¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? No 59¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? No 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 23? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 23? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 21? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 31? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 29? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 31? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 22? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 20? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on May 23? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on May 16? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 22? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 30? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 25? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 18? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 22? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 22? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 25? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 29? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 16? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on May 26? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 28? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 28? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on May 28? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 21? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 26? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 1? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 25? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on May 20? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 28? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 23? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 16? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Fin Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 26? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 24? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 23? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 27? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 30? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 83% +$882
sports 17% +$276
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $3 18m
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $5 25m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $5 25m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 25m
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 42¢ $4 56m
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 52¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 56¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 56¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 81¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 60¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 60¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 53¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 42¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 736 -10.5% -19.0% 52% 50% -4.4%
≤30d 1083 +2.8% -7.0% 58% 54% +1.0%
≤90d 1083 +2.8% -7.0% 58% 54% +1.0%
all 1083 +2.8% -7.0% 58% 54% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover221.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 54% +1.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 39% -8.6%
15% -24.0% 29% -17.5%
20% -31.5% 22% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $422.72 · official $422.90 (match) · 3500 history records