Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4eaa…8949
crypto · 37 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$8 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses34 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage202d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 1 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 81¢ 70¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 22 $30 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 14 $14 +$4 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 2? May 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? May 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Apr 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 30? Apr 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 30 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 17? Mar 30 $25 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Mar 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 20? Feb 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Feb 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 6? Jan 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 30? Jan 06 $45 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 30 $11 +$4 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on December 10? Dec 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 9? Dec 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 8? Dec 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 3? Dec 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 2? Dec 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Dec 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 28? Dec 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 26? Nov 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on November 26? Nov 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 25? Nov 26 $17 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 24? Nov 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 23? Nov 24 $3 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Nov 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 24 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 60% +$1
other 17% $0
world 10% +$2
tech 6% +$1
economics 4% +$4
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $20 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 22d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 30d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 2? BUY No 100¢ $20 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 76¢ $14 54d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 75d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $25 89d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 BUY No 100¢ $14 123d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 123d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $20 123d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 144d
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $23 144d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 158d
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $20 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 165d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on December 10? BUY No 100¢ $30 185d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 186d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $20 186d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 8? BUY No 100¢ $30 187d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 192d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 193d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 197d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 BUY No 100¢ $15 197d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on November 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 199d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 26? BUY No 100¢ $15 199d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 14 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 7% -7.4%
all 36 +2.3% -7.4% 94% 6% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 6% -8.1%
10% -16.3% 6% -16.9%
15% -24.4% 0% -25.0%
20% -31.8% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.43 · official $17.43 (match) · 73 history records