Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ea9…1651 world 112 markets active 7d ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,951 (-39%) realized −$1,814 · open −$137
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate33%37W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$239
14 days−$1,722
30 days−$1,607
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$592
other 27% −$1,201
politics 16% −$84
tech 7% −$111
finance 1% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -52.5% -57.0% 7% 0% -50.0%
≤30d 100 -27.1% -34.0% 37% 20% -41.6%
≤90d 111 -34.3% -40.5% 33% 18% -44.6%
all 111 -34.3% -40.5% 33% 18% -44.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.5% 18% -44.6%
10% -46.2% 13% -49.9%
15% -51.4% 10% -54.8%
20% -56.2% 6% -59.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$31 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$1,814
Unrealized−$137
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses37 / 74
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage31d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 25¢ 5¢ $170 $33 −$137 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Ukraine coup attempt by June 30? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -91%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $10 −$8 -76%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 10 $10 −$8 -76%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$7 -72%
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -44%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Jun 10 $10 −$7 -72%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$6 -59%
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Jun 10 $7 −$1 -20%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $20 −$10 -49%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -14%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Jun 10 $10 −$2 -22%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$6 -58%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $30 −$14 -47%
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Jun 10 $30 −$10 -33%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $30 −$3 -11%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $30 −$10 -32%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 10 $51 −$10 -20%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 10 $50 −$2 -5%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $864 −$864 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 09 $50 +$3 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $100 −$23 -23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 09 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 09 $50 +$4 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $50 +$5 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $60 +$14 +23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $50 +$21 +42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $20 +$8 +40%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Jun 09 $100 +$12 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $50 +$2 +5%
Will Trump say "N Word" this week? Jun 08 $3 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" this week? Jun 08 $3 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $161 −$161 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $97 +$14 +14%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $228 −$225 -99%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $50 +$4 +7%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.25T and 2.50T? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $170 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $50 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 6d
Ukraine coup attempt by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 6d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 6d
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 6d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 6d
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 6d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 6d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 6d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 6d
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 6d
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $27 6d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $20 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $41 6d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 66¢ $48 6d
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $51 6d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $528 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $50 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 228 history records