Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4E 0x4ea8…9469 sports 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$37,677 (+27%) realized +$39,379 · open −$1,702
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%33W / 26L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$2,142per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$2,121est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8,098now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$34,720
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +21.8% +10.2% 56% 54% +16.5%
≤30d 59 +21.8% +10.2% 56% 54% +16.5%
≤90d 59 +21.8% +10.2% 56% 54% +16.5%
all 59 +21.8% +10.2% 56% 54% +16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.2% 54% +16.5%
10% ← realistic here -0.3% 53% +5.4%
15% -10.0% 53% -4.8%
20% -18.8% 39% -14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$3,027) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,448 vs −$1,707 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$8,098
Realized+$39,379
Unrealized−$1,702
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses33 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$2,121
Open positions5
Markets (closed)59 / 64
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2,142
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 56¢ $6,000 $6,129 +$129 (+2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 26¢ $1,000 $828 −$172 (-17%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 38¢ 21¢ $1,000 $556 −$444 (-44%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 52¢ 18¢ $1,000 $346 −$654 (-65%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 40¢ 12¢ $800 $239 −$561 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,058 +$3,635 +90%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3,153 −$3,110 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6,939 +$5,972 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2,041 +$4,410 +216%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4,528 +$4,574 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6,870 −$6,766 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2,028 +$1,717 +85%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $510 +$1,035 +203%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1,017 +$1,256 +124%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4,055 −$4,000 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $816 −$800 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2,036 +$2,964 +146%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $205 +$1,128 +550%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,032 +$2,202 +108%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,022 +$2,824 +276%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $510 −$500 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $509 +$674 +133%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2,421 +$974 +40%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $509 −$500 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $712 −$700 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2,026 −$2,000 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $9,758 +$20,922 +214%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4,078 −$2,098 -51%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3,437 −$3,400 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,025 −$2,000 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1,019 +$1,616 +159%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3,947 +$2,604 +66%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2,033 +$2,411 +119%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,525 −$1,500 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $511 −$500 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $917 −$900 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $439 −$430 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $408 +$935 +229%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3,415 +$5,185 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $6,058 +$2,796 +46%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5,049 −$5,000 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2,026 −$2,000 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2,019 +$880 +44%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1,017 +$1,246 +123%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $2,025 +$1,405 +69%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3,027 +$1,259 +42%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $524 +$274 +52%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2,035 +$338 +17%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $512 +$1 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2,017 +$800 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1,020 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2,027 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $814 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $1,014 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $4,055 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1,019 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $4,058 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $3,153 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4,528 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,927 34h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $956 34h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2,041 34h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $4,056 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1,022 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2,031 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4,839 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2,028 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $306 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $2,028 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $1,017 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $510 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $510 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2,028 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 15¢ $205 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2,036 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $511 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $510 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $511 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1,524 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,098.11 · official $9,057.63 · 116 history records