Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:19:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ea7…b614 other 197 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%14W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$4
sports 24% −$5
other 22% $0
economics 10% $0
crypto 9% −$14
culture 3% $0
world 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 4 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 197 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses14 / 183
Open positions0
Markets (closed)197 / 197
History coverage174d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 197 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 28 $34 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $147 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $109 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 11 $230 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $85 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $147 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Mar 10 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 09 $182 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 08 $123 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 08 $61 $0 -1%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 08 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $81 $0 -0%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $41 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 07 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 06 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 06 $78 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $40 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $316 +$1 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 03 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 25 $82 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $131 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $129 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 25 $265 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 25 $165 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $87 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $164 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $75 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $83 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $135 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 18 $72 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $81 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 8h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 13d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 13d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $28 21d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $28 21d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $28 34d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $28 34d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $38 41d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $38 41d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $35 109d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $35 109d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $40 109d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $40 109d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $29 109d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $29 109d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $36 109d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $37 110d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $33 110d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $33 110d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $33 110d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $33 110d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $36 110d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $11 111d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $25 111d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $31 111d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $31 111d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $28 111d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $28 111d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $33 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 756 history records