Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4E 0x4ea6…d5e9 other 5 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$86 (+13%) realized +$57 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$579now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$2
world 40% +$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+42.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +57.8% +42.8% 100% 100% +42.8%
≤30d 1 +57.8% +42.8% 100% 100% +42.8%
≤90d 1 +57.8% +42.8% 100% 100% +42.8%
all 1 +57.8% +42.8% 100% 100% +42.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.8% 100% +42.8%
10% +29.1% 100% +29.1%
15% +16.6% 100% +16.6%
20% +5.2% 100% +5.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$579
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 70¢ 84¢ $160 $191 +$31 (+19%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $190 $189 −$1 (-1%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 88¢ 90¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 93¢ 91¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $100 +$58 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $160 25h
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $100 2d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $191 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 2d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $579.27 · official $579.27 (match) · 6 history records