Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4E 0x4ea6…b249 world 321 markets active 2h ago coverage 376d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27,168 (+47%) realized +$27,858 · open −$690
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate31%100W / 219L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$550now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$305
30 days−$862
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$23,086
other 14% +$3,170
finance 8% +$223
tech 2% +$878
politics 1% +$96
sports 0% −$15
economics 0% −$42
crypto 0% −$27
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -24.5% -31.7% 0% 0% -31.7%
≤30d 15 -32.2% -38.7% 27% 7% -26.6%
≤90d 33 +42.1% +28.6% 45% 27% -16.8%
all 319 +0.6% -9.0% 31% 26% +30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 26% +30.4%
10% -17.7% 23% +17.9%
15% -25.7% 21% +6.5%
20% -32.9% 20% -3.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$411 vs −$60 · ×6.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.15 per $1 lost it wins $3.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

376d coverage
Net worth$550
Realized+$27,858
Unrealized−$690
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses100 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)319 / 321
History coverage376d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 319 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 49¢ 22¢ $1,200 $546 −$654 (-54%)
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $40 $4 −$36 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28? Jun 28 $50 −$12 -24%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $222 −$6 -3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $95 −$33 -34%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $800 −$44 -6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $900 +$94 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,200 −$127 -11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $250 −$250 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $70 +$6 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $100 −$11 -11%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $20 +$2 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $126 −$126 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $500 −$206 -41%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 02 $200 +$156 +78%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $100 −$8 -8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $200 +$8,016 +4008%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $60 +$3 +5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 23 $100 +$56 +56%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $500 +$250 +50%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $200 +$20 +10%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 11 $220 +$125 +57%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 11 $143 +$6 +4%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A Apr 11 $1,600 +$184 +12%
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $977 −$977 -100%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr 08 $100 +$60 +60%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 08 $100 +$103 +103%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $5,000 +$1,444 +29%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 07 $6,150 −$6,076 -99%
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026? Apr 07 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 07 $500 −$8 -2%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31? Mar 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 18 $1,630 −$55 -3%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? Mar 18 $258 −$258 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 13 $314 −$222 -71%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? Mar 13 $126 −$126 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Mar 12 $100 +$26 +26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 08 $3,000 +$278 +9%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $200 +$106 +53%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $1,913 +$8,443 +441%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Feb 28 $1,503 +$2,675 +178%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $872 +$1,560 +179%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $9,200 +$9,234 +100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 27 $85 −$78 -92%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 26 $31 −$25 -80%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $47 −$28 -59%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026? Feb 24 $88 −$88 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28? SELL Yes 6¢ $38 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 23h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28? BUY Yes 8¢ $30 23h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? BUY Yes 9¢ $40 2d
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 66¢ $216 10d
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 68¢ $222 10d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $4 10d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 10¢ $62 11d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 29¢ $756 11d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 32¢ $200 11d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 32¢ $300 11d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 30¢ $300 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 19¢ $100 12d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $95 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $200 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 34¢ $881 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $800 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,200 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $1,073 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,200 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $250 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 12¢ $76 17d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $70 17d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? SELL Yes 6¢ $89 17d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 17d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL No 7¢ $22 17d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 6¢ $20 18d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $40 19d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $24 19d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $550.43 · official $550.43 (match) · 1339 history records