Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e9d…1e4b
sports · 193 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$368 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$411 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$135
Realized−$411
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses39 / 149
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions5
Markets (closed)188 / 193
History coverage252d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 5 History 188 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$12
14 days−$33
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $65 $63 −$1 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $30 $29 −$2 (-5%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $23 $19 −$4 (-17%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Los Angeles FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Spurs 46¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 46¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Canada vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Los Angeles FC vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Thunder 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Spurs 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5) Brentford FC 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $18 +$5 +26%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +107%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$20 -66%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $22 +$3 +12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $15 −$1 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 10 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $16 −$2 -12%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $51 +$9 +18%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 05 $9 −$4 -46%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 04 $10 −$2 -23%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $15 −$9 -58%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $16 +$2 +12%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Jun 03 $19 −$5 -25%
Will Canada vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $37 −$8 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $52 −$4 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $20 −$17 -87%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $10 −$1 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 27 $51 +$1 +3%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $10 −$1 -7%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5 May 26 $9 +$8 +89%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? May 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $62 +$9 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $62 $0 -0%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus end in a draw? May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $14 −$2 -12%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 21 $9 −$1 -11%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $46 −$11 -24%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 20 $50 −$5 -11%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $27 −$10 -36%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 19 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will Nashville SC vs. Los Angeles FC end in a draw? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5) May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gimcheon Sangmu FC end in a draw? May 17 $5 +$8 +166%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $21 −$2 -9%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $10 +$16 +158%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) May 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$10 +98%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 16 $10 −$9 -89%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 36% −$186
other 31% −$182
world 25% −$2
politics 3% −$34
finance 3% −$9
culture 1% −$9
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $30 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $18 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 75¢ $19 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $17 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 57¢ $10 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 26¢ $6 13h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $13 16h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 17h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $43 24h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $8 27h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 41h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $30 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $31 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $15 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.1% -6.7% 38% 38% -17.8%
≤30d 50 -18.3% -26.1% 28% 24% -21.3%
≤90d 151 -24.6% -31.8% 20% 19% -23.3%
all 188 -17.2% -25.1% 21% 20% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 20% -19.3%
10% -32.3% 16% -27.0%
15% -38.8% 15% -34.1%
20% -44.8% 14% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.74 · official $134.74 (match) · 587 history records