Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4E 0x4e9d…489e crypto 1663 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate88%1473W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$8
14 days−$7
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$25
other 0% +$1
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 370 -0.6% -10.1% 87% 51% -9.3%
≤30d 569 -2.3% -11.6% 86% 48% -11.2%
≤90d 872 -1.5% -10.8% 87% 43% -10.4%
all 1665 -1.0% -10.4% 88% 26% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 26% -10.2%
10% -19.0% 2% -18.8%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1473 / 192
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1665 / 1663
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.44 · official $2.44 (match) · 3500 history records