Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:44:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4E 0x4e9c…2fdf crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 499d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%36W / 8L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$1
other 22% $0
tech 11% $0
economics 9% $0
politics 7% $0
sports 4% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 44 +0.2% -9.3% 82% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.56 per $1 lost it wins $4.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

499d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses36 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage499d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? May 05 $21 $0 +1%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? Dec 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? Nov 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 04 $22 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jul 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 20 $9 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Silviu Predoiu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Apr 13 $14 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 25 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? Mar 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Mar 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $15 $0 +3%
Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 05 $19 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Feb 17 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $38 30d
Will BNB reach $800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 62d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 62d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 99¢ $21 62d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $34 92d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $20 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $2 148d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $7 150d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $32 151d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $6 182d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $29 182d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $13 211d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $18 211d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 241d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? BUY No 100¢ $24 242d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $4 272d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 272d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $25 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $22 301d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $11 333d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $22 334d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $12 366d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 393d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 394d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 99¢ $9 395d
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? BUY No 99¢ $4 424d
Will Xi visit the US before May? BUY No 100¢ $10 426d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.66 · official $40.66 (match) · 95 history records