Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:00:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e98…71e1 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$3
other 31% −$1
finance 9% $0
politics 8% +$1
tech 4% $0
crypto 4% +$1
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 18% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 12 -0.4% -9.8% 17% 0% -10.2%
all 55 -2.8% -12.0% 45% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage454d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $42 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $82 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $42 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $44 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $4 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $40 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $33 −$2 -5%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 -2%
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 24 $0 $0 -50%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 14-17%? Jun 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 53% and 55% of the vote in the South Ko Jun 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%? May 31 $13 $0 +1%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? May 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 29 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Momo win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? May 24 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 23 $12 $0 +1%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 23 $12 $0 -1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? May 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in Epstein files? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Albania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 16? May 15 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 13 $1 $0 -18%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $2 $0 -7%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $11 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 08 $12 $0 -2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 3h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $28 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $15 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $42 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $42 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 44¢ $39 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 44¢ $0 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 44¢ $2 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 44¢ $32 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 44¢ $4 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $39 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $40 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $4 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $1 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $1 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $1 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $39 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $40 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $2 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records