Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:43:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4E 0x4e94…4ddf sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+5%) realized +$2 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%39W / 32L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$33
14 days+$39
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$3
other 22% +$42
crypto 14% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +25.7% +13.7% 46% 46% -0.8%
≤30d 48 +7.4% -2.8% 50% 50% -1.5%
≤90d 71 +6.6% -3.6% 55% 52% -1.8%
all 71 +6.6% -3.6% 55% 52% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 52% -1.8%
10% -12.8% 42% -11.2%
15% -21.2% 31% -19.8%
20% -29.0% 24% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses39 / 32
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions5
Markets (closed)71 / 78
History coverage69d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 8¢ 50¢ $5 $32 +$27 (+531%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 10¢ 50¢ $6 $30 +$24 (+401%)
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 44¢ 35¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 32¢ 50¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$16 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$8 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$40 +128%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $15 +$10 +64%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$25 +49%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$8 +82%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $20 −$1 -5%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1 +$9 +884%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$8 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 −$3 -53%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +35%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$6 +118%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$6 +111%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $36 +$11 +31%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $15 +$5 +31%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $67 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $23 +$5 +20%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $9 −$1 -11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $16 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $17 −$12 -68%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 +$7 +68%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs fnatic (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Pla May 27 $5 +$2 +43%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 23 $15 +$7 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 59¢ $51 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.82 · official $112.82 (match) · 249 history records