Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:46:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4E 0x4e8d…3b13 world 199 markets active 0h ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$820 (-1%) realized −$550 · open −$270
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate53%100W / 88L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$459per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$3,554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$297
7 days+$344
14 days+$444
30 days−$770
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$180
world 26% +$121
other 17% +$661
politics 11% −$1,246
sports 2% +$264
tech 1% −$628
economics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +18.0% +6.8% 56% 56% +14.9%
≤30d 26 +14.1% +3.2% 73% 54% -14.7%
≤90d 67 -14.4% -22.5% 46% 34% -14.1%
all 188 -9.1% -17.7% 53% 38% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 38% -10.3%
10% -25.6% 26% -18.9%
15% -32.8% 19% -26.7%
20% -39.4% 14% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$95 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$3,554
Realized−$550
Unrealized−$270
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses100 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)188 / 199
History coverage584d
Avg bet$459
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 78¢ 90¢ $1,211 $1,403 +$191 (+16%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 89¢ 87¢ $1,000 $976 −$24 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 90¢ $717 $774 +$58 (+8%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 73¢ 20¢ $323 $89 −$234 (-72%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $65 $68 +$2 (+4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 68¢ 53¢ $68 $53 −$15 (-22%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 69¢ 36¢ $100 $52 −$48 (-48%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 76¢ 35¢ $100 $46 −$54 (-54%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? No 81¢ 80¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $145 $42 −$103 (-71%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 47¢ 5¢ $48 $5 −$42 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 19 $30 −$20 -66%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 19 $24 +$36 +150%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 19 $710 +$283 +40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $216 −$2 -1%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $68 +$42 +62%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $5 +$5 +85%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $143 +$15 +11%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $78 −$14 -18%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $100 +$58 +58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,000 +$42 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 04 $2,236 −$2,236 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $101 +$44 +43%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $1,600 +$198 +12%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $130 +$11 +9%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $1,000 +$86 +9%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $425 +$55 +13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $1,000 +$162 +16%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 28 $1,150 +$99 +9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $1,200 +$77 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $10 +$15 +146%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $200 +$39 +19%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $2,109 +$241 +11%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? May 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,685 +$69 +4%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $401 −$400 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $20 +$19 +93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $900 +$15 +2%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $2,847 +$127 +4%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? May 11 $552 −$38 -7%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 11 $20 +$37 +184%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 11 $20 −$15 -74%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their May 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n May 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 08 $30 +$10 +35%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 08 $11 +$9 +77%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? May 02 $400 +$111 +28%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign 15-19 executive orders in April? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 16? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 14? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 25? Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $100 17m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $300 17m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $200 17m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $200 17m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $200 17m
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 100¢ $60 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $993 1h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY No 79¢ $6 16h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY No 81¢ $40 22h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $80 22h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 22h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 22h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $214 23h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $58 23h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 93¢ $30 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 93¢ $5 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 93¢ $17 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 93¢ $14 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 81¢ $5 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 81¢ $562 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 82¢ $24 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 82¢ $115 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 85¢ $7 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $36 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 85¢ $85 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,553.77 · official $3,553.78 (match) · 815 history records