Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4E 0x4e8c…79bd sports 531 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$563 (+1%) realized +$583 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%234W / 220L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$265est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$205
7 days+$387
14 days+$526
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$1,735
other 43% +$1,793
world 1% +$153
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +13.3% +2.5% 46% 46% +7.1%
≤30d 228 -2.3% -11.6% 50% 46% -10.1%
≤90d 454 -1.8% -11.2% 52% 49% -8.7%
all 454 -1.8% -11.2% 52% 49% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 49% -8.7%
10% -19.7% 46% -17.5%
15% -27.4% 43% -25.4%
20% -34.6% 36% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$57 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$2,233
Realized+$583
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses234 / 220
Est. fees paid−$265
Open positions77
Markets (closed)454 / 531
History coverage68d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 77 History 454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Over 86¢ 86¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Over 86¢ 84¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 44¢ $93 $88 −$5 (-5%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 68¢ $51 $53 +$2 (+3%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Over 85¢ 86¢ $51 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Over 81¢ 80¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 76¢ $51 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 78¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 60¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 100¢ $25 $42 +$18 (+72%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Over 26¢ 26¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 70¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 165 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $12 −$3 -25%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $25 +$17 +67%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$26 +86%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$10 +70%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$90 +60%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $352 +$41 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $17 +$14 +83%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $13 +$28 +216%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $34 +$9 +27%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$36 +140%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 +$45 +344%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$38 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $12 −$11 -87%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +396%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $39 −$38 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 +$34 +134%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 +$42 +262%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $30 +$24 +79%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 14 $35 +$28 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $201 +$40 +20%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 +$64 +442%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $35 +$22 +62%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $19 +$55 +291%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 +$111 +368%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 +$44 +553%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $38 −$38 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 +$34 +134%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $36 +$33 +93%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 15¢ $9 1h
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 58¢ $15 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $25 12h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 53¢ $30 12h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 57¢ $30 12h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $11 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $39 17h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $34 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 17h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 17h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 17h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $52 17h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $52 17h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 17h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $19 17h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $7 17h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 15¢ $2 17h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $52 17h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 23¢ $5 17h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 18¢ $2 17h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $8 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $52 17h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 32¢ $10 17h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 17h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $52 17h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $52 17h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $52 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,233.47 · official $2,235.63 (match) · 1003 history records