Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e8a…a117 sports 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (180 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$247 (+20%) realized +$266 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%14W / 6L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day179.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$170
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (180 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +33.2% +20.5% 70% 70% +5.9%
≤30d 20 +33.2% +20.5% 70% 70% +5.9%
≤90d 20 +33.2% +20.5% 70% 70% +5.9%
all 20 +33.2% +20.5% 70% 70% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover179.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.5% 70% +5.9%
10% ← realistic here +9.0% 55% -4.2%
15% -1.6% 40% -13.5%
20% -11.2% 20% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +65% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$266
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions9
Markets (closed)20 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day179.8
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 94¢ 44¢ $50 $23 −$27 (-54%)
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Nick Hardt 64¢ 100¢ $12 $18 +$7 (+55%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 61¢ 100¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+64%)
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Belle Thompson 72¢ 72¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 48¢ 26¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-46%)
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Juan Sebastian Gomez 0¢ 36¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 41¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs ReThink 23¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+335%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Heretics 48¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 15 $11 +$26 +233%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $2 +$3 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 −$7 -45%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $27 +$48 +178%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $13 +$14 +114%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $27 +$11 +41%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +12%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $213 −$49 -23%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $19 +$5 +28%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $100 −$17 -17%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $216 +$97 +45%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $182 +$39 +22%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $80 −$16 -20%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $174 +$36 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 38¢ $4 0m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $50 2m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $6 4m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $2 4m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 71¢ $2 13m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $2 17m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 76¢ $2 17m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 66¢ $2 19m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 76¢ $2 21m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 87¢ $2 28m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 75¢ $2 32m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 84¢ $2 33m
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Heretics 43¢ $2 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Heretics 53¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $7 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $11 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $11 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $16 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $11 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $9 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $6 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $8 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 54¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $38 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $34 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 73¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $2 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 51¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.70 · official $72.47 (match) · 209 history records