Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:36:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e8a…ad94 weather 729 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$684 (+6%) realized +$668 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%331W / 665L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,022
7 days+$1,005
14 days+$926
30 days+$596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$1,521
crypto 4% −$50
other 1% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 442 -31.5% -38.0% 26% 24% +39.6%
≤30d 504 -36.6% -42.7% 24% 22% +17.5%
≤90d 858 -20.3% -27.9% 32% 29% -1.6%
all 996 -20.5% -28.0% 33% 31% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.0% 31% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.9% 31% -13.4%
15% -41.2% 25% -21.7%
20% -47.0% 21% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$10 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$668
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses331 / 665
Open positions17
Markets (closed)996 / 729
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 996 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 16? Yes 56¢ 100¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+78%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? Yes 33¢ 33¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Yes 50¢ 49¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Eduardo Girão win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? No 86¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+16%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -2% and 0% in May? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 0% and 2% in May? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 6% and 8% in May? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+128%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-41%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be at least 8% in May? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Yes 46¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+117%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 483 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on March 11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -9°C on March 1? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on Mar Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 9? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ma Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C or higher on Marc Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 11 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Ma Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 9? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 28? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 32-33°F on March 9? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 9? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on Mar Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on February 28? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 38°F or higher on March 1? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 11 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 57¢ $7 35m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 43¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 73¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 56¢ $20 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 47h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 36¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.66 · official $131.18 · 3500 history records