Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:38:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e89…bc80 world 38 markets active 3h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$2
other 35% −$1
finance 6% $0
crypto 5% −$1
sports 5% +$3
weather 2% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 12 +0.8% -8.8% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +0.8% -8.8% 25% 0% -9.4%
all 37 -6.3% -15.2% 35% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 5% -9.1%
10% -23.3% 0% -17.8%
15% -30.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage473d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 13¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $149 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $47 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $48 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $52 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $5 $0 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference? Apr 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $2 $0 +18%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 01 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will Lily Phillips break Bonnie Blue's 24hr sex record before April? Mar 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $18 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 25 $1 $0 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $77000 and $79000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 20? Mar 19 $18 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 19 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 15 $17 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 15 $17 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 12 $17 $0 +1%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $14 +$3 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $47 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $47 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 27h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $16 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 32h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $14 35h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $34 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $5 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $1 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $1 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $2 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $2 47h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $16 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $31 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $47 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $40 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $7 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $1 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $26 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $20 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $15 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $15 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $52 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $52 24d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $47 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.14 (match) · 117 history records