Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:01:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4E 0x4e88…488e other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$610 (-27%) realized −$584 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$131
30 days−$619
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$893
sports 18% +$248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -4.5% -13.6% 60% 60% -38.7%
≤90d 5 -4.5% -13.6% 60% 60% -38.7%
all 5 -4.5% -13.6% 60% 60% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 60% -38.7%
10% -21.9% 60% -44.6%
15% -29.4% 60% -49.9%
20% -36.3% 20% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$556 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized−$584
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage27d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 31¢ 28¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $252 +$110 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $252 +$121 +48%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $304 +$262 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,030 −$1,012 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 31¢ $102 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $252 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $252 10d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $304 27d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 28¢ $46 27d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $984 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.97 · official $273.97 (match) · 12 history records