Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:07:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e88…0ec2
other · 6 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$3 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 1 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $7 $0 -6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 15h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -17.5% -25.3% 40% 40% -18.0%
≤30d 5 -17.5% -25.3% 40% 40% -18.0%
≤90d 5 -17.5% -25.3% 40% 40% -18.0%
all 5 -17.5% -25.3% 40% 40% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 40% -18.0%
10% -32.5% 40% -25.9%
15% -39.0% 20% -33.0%
20% -45.0% 0% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.73 · official $4.73 (match) · 14 history records